We all had every reason to expect a stellar season after the highs of 2023–24 coffee year. The global coffee markets surged, commodity prices climbed, and Uganda’s harvest volumes rocketed, reaching a record 7.43 million 60 kg bags exported by mid 2025—up from 6.08 million a year earlier—propelling Uganda to the top of Africa’s coffee exporters, overtaking Ethiopia for the first time in history. Yet instead of sustained gains, farmers are now facing plummeting coffee prices, while European importers and roasters benefit from cheap stockpiles, hedged contracts, and tighter margins.
How did we get here—and where did we go wrong?
Over the past decades, Brazil has consistently maintained its position as the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for roughly one-third of total global output and nearly half of all arabica beans. In the 2025/26 coffee season, Brazil harvested around 65 million bags—a volume consistent with the previous year—and flooded the market, driving prices downward due to accelerated harvests. By mid 2025, the rapid and abundant harvest overwhelmed global coffee inventories, triggering a bearish run on coffee futures with prices plunging by up to 3% in a single day (−$12 for robusta). This rebound in production, following earlier climate stability and recovery from drought disruptions, swung the market back into oversupply—a clear manifestation of the familiar boom to bust cycle. As an origin, one key lesson we can draw from Brazilian farmers is their strategic shift toward irrigation and other costly adaptations to sustain and enhance yields. While these measures increase production costs and exert pressure on profitability, they ultimately enable larger harvests. However, temporary price spikes are often short-lived unless supply constraints persist; therefore, when market conditions are favorable, producers must maximize opportunities to “feast to the fullest.”
Currently, coffee farmers and traders in Uganda are pressing the government for answers as global prices tumble. Many have slowed purchases or resorted to hoarding dried coffee cherries, hoping for a rebound to the lucrative prices of previous seasons. This cautious “wait-and-see” approach has led to reduced traded volumes and dampened broker activity, as fewer farmers are willing to sell at current depressed prices.
Roasters, while they profit from falling coffee prices, also wield significant power to stabilize markets for origin farmers. They achieve this through two key mechanisms:
1. Futures Hedging to Lock in Prices
Roasters routinely purchase coffee futures contracts to secure green-bean prices in advance. This hedging smooth extreme market volatility, shielding farmers from sudden crashes and offering more predictable pricing signals
2. Strategic Inventory Reserves
Major roasting companies maintain 3–6 months of bean inventory, creating a vital buffer against abrupt supply gluts. By drawing on these reserves during downturns, roasters help prevent panic selling and preserve market stability.
Locally, our newly launched value-addition plan in western Uganda is a practical embodiment of these principles. Forging local partnerships with the private sector, national micro roasters like Bushbucks coffee roaster will be an upper hand for stable prices. By purchasing surplus dry cherries or FAQ at fair prices—even in lean times—we’re building a buffer stock model that mimics global roasting best practices. This initiative aims not only to provide income security for farmers but also to stabilize local prices and maintain trading momentum amid global instability.

By Godfrey Batte.