Welcome to an unprecedented rise in coffee production. We are witnessing a bloom like no other, a shift that has never occurred before. This transition in coffee seasons and productivity is significantly contributing to the availability of FAQ robustas during the off-season, a period traditionally marked by lower volumes. In the past, the low season, which followed the central crop harvest in regions like Luweero, Busoga, and parts of Kiboga, typically spanned from late November to early February. However, this pattern has dramatically changed. Today, exporters in Uganda are receiving unexpected volumes of Robusta FAQ during what was once considered the off-season.

So, how did we get here? What did we do right to shift this momentum?

Now, let’s dive into a few insights. First, I must add a disclaimer: if you feel left out of this bumper harvest, don’t quote me wrong — perhaps you were on the other side of the trade. For the second consecutive season, Robusta prices have outpaced those of our Natural Arabicas, both locally and globally. However, this trend applies to consumer prices, not production costs.

According to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), now under the Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF), “the price of Robusta coffee in Uganda has increased in recent years, following global trends, earning farmers the highest prices in 30 years.” In a market where the price index has tripled over the past three years, closing today at an average of $4,850 (approximately Shs 18.3 million) per ton — a gain of $139 (Sh 524,500) from the previous close — the upward trend is clear.

As this news trickles down to the average farmer, GREED may be the driving force behind their renewed commitment to coffee cultivation. Farmers have been pruning, mulching, and even going so far as to artificially irrigate and hire private security to protect their coffee plantations. These efforts have clearly paid off, contributing to the late harvest we are experiencing now, ahead of the main season.

And of course, we cannot overlook the impact of the Katikiro of Buganda’s “Emwanyi Terimba” campaign. His initiative has empowered coffee producers in the region to commercialize their coffee, shifting away from neglecting their gardens and encouraging greater focus on improving productivity.

Let’s begin by analyzing what happened in Brazil during the 2023/2024 crop season. Initially, the Brazilian Coffee Institute had projected that the country’s 2024 production harvest would be 6.8% higher than in 2023. However, the actual results were contrary to this forecast. Instead of reaching the expected 58.8 million 60-kilogram bags, Brazil’s harvest totaled only 54.79 million bags. This shortfall of nearly 10% created a supply gap, prompting traders to seek alternatives from other coffee-producing regions.

This surge in demand contributed to a bull run in other origins, such as Uganda. Traders have observed this shift particularly in the Masaka and Bukomansimbi… coffee belts, where lessons have been learned about the importance of careful coffee management. As a result, these regions are seeing increased production volumes, with a strong crop expected to continue through mid-March, ahead of the May crop this year.

According to the International Coffee Organization, coffee prices are expected to continue rising over the next five years. As shown in the image above, this trend will undoubtedly benefit farmers at the farmgate, allowing them to capitalize on the price bump.

By  Batte Godfrey